The end of the COVID-19 pandemic is not here—not even close. In many jurisdictions, second-wave peaks in new infections, hospitalizations and deaths are yet to come. The possibility of a third wave looms as new, more infectious variants emerge.
The
workers’ compensation impacts are only just beginning to be felt. Direct COVID-19 work-related illness, disability,
and death claims are rising in number; psychological injury claims for front-line
healthcare and other essential workers are also on the rise. The
disparities across jurisdictions in claim acceptance rates, timeliness, and
benefits are becoming more evident. Non
COVID-19 cases are suffering delays in treatment and economic disruptions are
resulting in longer periods of disability until a return to work is possible. Longer claim durations can contribute to
worse outcomes for workers and costs for employers.
Hygiene,
safety plans, and personal protective equipment issues have grown in priority
for occupational safety and health inspectorates and prevention agencies. Inspectors themselves are working in
difficult times and with unfamiliar risks.
Keeping themselves safe while ensuring protections are in place for
workers and others in the workplace is a markedly changed objective in the
altered reality of 2021. For industry and labour services providing OH&S
education and promotion, COVID-19-specific messaging is one challenge; reaching
intended audiences without seminars and conferences is another.
The COVID-19
pandemic is behind some emerging workplace trends that will impact the
workplace for years to come. No one
knows for sure where these trends will lead; some predictions are possible
based on past experiences and current trajectories. One thing’s for sure, this is not the last
time something like the COVID-19 pandemic will impact our workplaces.
Six Trends
1. Working from home is now mainstream…
for some: The proportion of workers working from home
some or all of the time has increased and will continue to be a significant
segment of the workforce. During the pandemic, garages and attics have become
office spaces and dining room tables commandeered as workstations. Many workers who once lived close to the
office to avoid the long daily commute have opted for the larger residential spaces
offered in the suburbs and rural areas and are commuting less often to the
corporate. Workplaces have adapted but the new arrangements may test
traditional boundaries for occupational safety and health and workers’
compensation. How much say, if any,
should an employer have over ergonomics, ventilation, or safety of a home
office? Is the commute from the home
office to the corporate office a work journey? What protocols do you need to
investigate work injuries and workers’ compensation claims in the home
workplace? The questions are growing as the work-from home trend continues.
2. Impermanent workplaces and
shared workspaces are increasing: “The Workplace” used to be synonymous with a specific location under
the control of the employer. There were
always exceptions; truck drivers take their workplace with them and field
technicians have workplaces in every site they visit. We used to joke that the local coffee shop
was the “corporate office” for many small companies. I know of firms that have no corporate
offices at all; they work virtually most of the time and rent office spaces or
hotel rooms as needed. Fully equipped
office spaces complete with highspeed internet, secure teleconference services,
boardrooms and even coffee service are available by the hour, day, or week as
needed. Individually incorporated professionals
such as massage therapists and psychologists share independently run office
space and even some support staff. Virtual, asynchronous
or simultaneous use of workspaces blur the lines of accountability and even liability. Who has responsibility of health and safety
issues? Will there be an increase in
third party claim considerations? The reconceptualization
of the workplace will continue and become a more significant concern.
3. Mask-wearing is becoming a social
norm…in most of the world: As someone who [used to] spend
a lot of time in airports, on airplanes and traveling on public transit, I was
somewhat used to seeing a few face masks on my fellow travelers and in lecture
or seminar audiences. There was not a lot of science about the efficacy of mask
wearing as a means of infection control but that has changed. For the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, the
scientific evidence is now conclusive:
masks are effective in preventing the spread of this disease, more so in
protecting others than the wearer but with some protection for the wearer. That trend towards normalizing mask-wearing
in public spaces and private workplaces will continue. When this pandemic wanes, daily mask wearing will
be more common and more accepted. Should
mask wearing become mandatory in certain workplaces or situations? Should masks be an employer-supplied piece of
PPE? What mask standards should apply to
which workplaces?
4. Work environments are being built, rebuilt,
and retrofitted with infection control in mind [not top of mind, but in mind]: Those plexiglass barriers you see everywhere
are not all temporary. Ventilation
systems with advanced virus and bacteria killing technology are not just a
passing fad. Lighting systems with safe
UV frequencies may not be commonplace but are being retrofitted in some places
and designed in new builds. Even the
hastily installed take-out windows in many restaurants are likely to
persist. New HVAC and air conditioning
systems that kill bacteria and destroy viruses are now in the marketplace. The hastily installed barriers on some
production lines are likely to persist and there is a good chance that the next
iteration of design will integrate these and other new features to protect
workers and others in the workplace.
Will improvements in the built environment be enough? Will there be standards that create an even
playing field or will this trend fade under cost pressures?
5. “Burnout”, mental injury, stress—real
consequences of the pandemic—are taking an increasing toll:
For decades, workers’ compensation has been slow to accept any aspect of
work as causative of mental injury or illness.
With the high toll of mental exhaustion, breakdown and even suicide
among caregivers, the underlying work-related causes are impossible to
ignore. Healthcare workers are the most
obvious victims, but others suffer mental injuries including depression, mental
exhaustion, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Workers’ compensation legislators and
policymakers are adapting. While some
are doing so by exception, executive order, or limited presumptions, others are
applying existing policies, setting new procedures that will persist and apply
more broadly. What will the policy landscape look like after the pandemic
passes? Will the growing acceptance of
mental injury translate into greater numbers of claims? Will the responsibilities employers have for
prevention of mental injury change or become more prominent?
6. Disruptions/distortions in labour
markets and the economy continue: When the pandemic began, the
distorted market for PPE, nasal swabs and even toilet paper quickly dominated
news coverage. Supply chains took time
to adjust. Manufacturers shifted from
making car parts to respirators and from distilling vodka to producing hand
sanitizer. The shift toward online commerce and home delivery exploded during
the pandemic, accelerating a trend in play before the pandemic. Storefronts on
main streets are shuttered but massive distribution centres are
burgeoning. Nothing happens instantly
and the lag-time resulted in shortages—including shortages of trained and
qualified people. Knowing what is needed
in terms of labour is far different from having the people and skills
available. Medical professionals from
nurses to respiratory technicians were already in short supply in many areas
and still are just as demand for these skills rose. Shortages of qualified personnel are making
the decision between staffing COVID-19 testing programs, contract-tracing
operations or vaccination centres a real challenge. Which should be the priority? How will workers’ compensation deal with the
distortions caused by overtime, bonuses and incentives in the COVID-19
period. Will disability or earnings-loss
policies–already a difficult area—have to change to adequately reflect loss in
case of injury or illness? How will
those suffering long-term physical or psychological effects of this pandemic be
identified, supported and accommodated in a shifting and uncertain labour
market be accommodated?
Three Predictions
1. “Immunity passports” will be a common requirement… for a while: If you are of a certain age, immunization travel documents like these may be familiar. Commercial airline staff and merchant mariners had to have them; other travelers were advised to carry. These were essential for entry into certain countries. Proof of immunization will be a requirement again just as proof of a negative COVID-19 test is now a requirement for many air travelers. “Immunity passports” may be formally discouraged by certain governments, considered by others, and debated in journals. Regardless of governmental views or what you call them, functional immunity passports will be required in many workplaces. Whether they take the form of a printed book, electronic record, or wallet card, workplaces are going to have a need to know who has been vaccinated and who might be at elevated risk if they are not. There will be questions about an employer’s right to require vaccinations or a workers’ right to refuse vaccination. Workers and other persons (such as passengers seeking to board a cruise ship) will be required to present evidence of their immunity either by vaccination or another means. In the ramp up to universal vaccination, there will be challenges. If a single vaccination series provides long-term immunity, if the virus does not mutate too quickly, or if the virus is extinguished for lack of susceptible individuals, the need for immunity passports will vanish… but those are a lot of ifs.
2. Presenteeism will persist…with risks:
For years, efforts to reduce absenteeism in the workplace have focused
on the outcome with little differentiation in strategy for disease. The laudable goal of an early and safe return
to work following an injury blended with the idea that anyone with any reason
for being absent should make the effort to return to work as soon as
possible. The systems in place to
penalize absenteeism and reward or applaud staying at work do not differentiate
well between injury and illness due to infectious diseases. The resulting presenteeism in the COVID-19
case is the source of many workplace outbreaks, particularly in congregate
settings (prisons, care homes) and production lines (poultry and meat
processing plants). The general duty of employers to protect workers from
illness has not been well understood, promoted or enforced. The nexus between
work and illness is often obscured in the case of disease but that is
changing. DNA sequencing and contact
tracing make the “work-relatedness” of infection clear in many instances. COVID-19 has taught us the need for a
different strategy when it comes to workplace disease. Presenteeism will continue but its drivers
and circumstances will get closer review.
It may not mean universal paid sick leave but the incentives and
penalties regarding illness in many workplaces will have to be re-examined and
managed differently.
3. Disaster Management, Business
Continuity, Contingency and Succession Planning will be ascendent … for a while:
There are lessons to be learned from this pandemic. Will we learn
them? There is a good chance we will,
but a strong likelihood the lessons learned will fade. It will take time and research dollars to
parse knowledge from the COVID-19 experience, but it will also take
organization will translate that knowledge into plans and actions. That will happen… in some organizations… for
a while. For a time, business continuity
planning will be in the ascendency.
Stockpiles of PPE will be replenished and kept up to date;
responsibility and accountability will be assigned at a high level; plans,
policies and procedures for various outbreaks and pandemics will be developed
and revised; and outbreak and pandemic scenarios will be incorporated into
contingency plans…until they are not.
One lesson we learned from this pandemic is that despite the warnings in
environmental scans and the near misses of H1H1, SARS, and other diseases, any
heightened awareness wanes. Costs rise,
responsibility fragments, budgets get cut.
Disaster management and business continuity planning priorities get
diluted and marginalized to job description lines just before “other related
duties”. I don’t see that changing in the longer term.
One sure
thing
This is not
the last pandemic. This pandemic is not
“the big one”.
Do not
confuse statements like “this is a once in a hundred-year event” with the idea
that a pandemic happens just once in a century.
We may be a day, a month, or a year away from the emergence of another,
even more infectious disease, and an even more devastating pandemic. Will we be ready for the next pandemic if it
is as infectious as measles and as deadly to children as COVID-19 has been to
the elderly?
COVID-19
exposed our lack of preparedness. Our failings
are not due to a lack of imagination.
Every corporate planning exercise I was involved in over the last few
decades listed the risk and even assessed the impact. Unfortunately, the
immediacy of other threats often narrow leadership focus and divert organizational
resources. Expertise is lost in the name of streamlining, budgets tightened,
and stockpiles depleted or aged out of usefulness.
The human
and economic costs of this pandemic are consequences of our past failures to
consistently invest in science, plan for pandemics, and expend resources in
preparation for what we know is coming.
Another
pandemic is inevitable. Being ready for one is a choice. Hopefully, a choice workplaces are willing to
make.
