Thursday, November 27, 2025

Why Doesn’t Every Work-Related Injury Become an Accepted Workers’ Compensation Claim? Part 2: Attrition by Design

The pathway from work-related injuries to accepted workers’ compensation claims, noting attrition points along the way.  Attrition points fall into three main categories:

  • Attrition by Intentional Design
  • Attrition by Barriers
  • Attrition by Policy, Practice, Process


In this post, we explore the first attrition point.  The chosen design of workers’ compensation systems in US, Australia, and Canada intentionally excludes about 15% of the employed labour force at the aggregate level. Cases of work-related injury in the excluded segment of the employed labour force can never become accepted workers’ compensation claims.   


Let’s start by understanding what accounts for this attrition by intentional design then examine the variation in coverage among state and provincial jurisdictions.



Attrition by Intentional Design

All jurisdictions in the U.S., Canada, and Australia share a common interest in protecting workers from work-related physical, mental and financial harms.  That social policy intent is given legal form through the adoption of a model to financially provide for work-related harms to workers.   These countries adopted the Bismarckian workers’ compensation model originating in Germany in the late 1800s, with coverage for a few select sectors and later expanding to cover most industries and occupations.  


Alternative models of social insurance and welfare protecting workers have been adopted in other countries. For example, Beveridge’s conception of a welfare state—universal medical protections for everyone including injured workers —dominates in the UK, with fault-based employer liability, backed by compulsory Employers’ Liability Insurance.  Owen Woodhouse’s Royal Commission principles formed the foundation for New Zealand’s Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC). National rather than state/provincial social insurance schemes are the most common form of financial protections for work-related injuries.


The choice of model has implication on who and what is covered, how coverage is provided and who funds the system.


Over time, the scope of coverage has widened in most jurisdictions.  The majority of systems mandate workers’ compensation coverage in selected industrial sectors and certain occupations, intentionally excluding or exempting others. 


Workers’ compensation as public policy

The schemes in Australia, the US and Canada share a common public policy formulation and purpose.

The British Columbia Sessional Papers (1914) from the formation of its legislation concisely states the public policy objective this way:

Each class surrenders to the State certain rights...

The employer receives protection from expensive litigation

The workman in return loses the right to sue for damages and receives a stipulated amount based upon his economic position in the community...

Both, and the State as well, benefit from the elimination of the friction and loss which necessarily attends all litigation.


The legislation in each jurisdiction reflects common principles.  Insurance principles dominate with no-fault compensation (almost) regardless of how the injury, illness, or death occurs as the dominant principle. 


As with all insurance, there is an agreement to transfer financial risk arising from defined perils.  The insurer assumes the risk in exchange for a premium.


Administrative models and Self Insurance

Each jurisdiction decides how best to administer the legislation.  The choice of oversight, administrative model, and insurance arrangement does not directly impact scope. 


State funds dominate in the US jurisdictions.  Washington State, North Dakota, Wyoming, Ohio operate at exclusive state funds; competitive (or insurers of last resort) state funds as well as private insurance are prevalent.  Canada uses provincially and territorially administered public workers’ compensation boards, all of which function as exclusive funds.  Australia has a variety of models including contracted claim management organizations acting as agents administering state authorities.


Regardless of the insurance arrangement, many jurisdictions permit selected, typically large, stable employers, and governments to self-insure with or without self-administration.  Self-insurance confines the cost of work-related injury to the employer rather than pooling or sharing incurred costs with others.  Self-administration allows the claims management to be carried out by the self-insured, although many use Third Party Administrators (TPAs).  The employer protections and workers entitlements of workers’ compensation are preserved.


Self-insurance with or without self-administration may be referred to by different names (self-insured employers, deposit class, qualified self-insured (QSI), or self-funded plans.).  Unlike rated or classified employers participating in traditional insurance pools, self-insured employers are responsible for their own workers’ compensation costs, although they may be assessed for a share of the research, oversight, prevention, appeal system and other cost aspects of the workers’ compensation system.


Allowing self-insurance with or without self-administration does not impact scope but it does impose a monitoring cost on the oversight authority to ensure compliance with the legislation.  [For a concise example, see L&I News, February 14, 2002, “L&I settles Wal-Mart decertification case; workers win protections” https://web.archive.org/web/20020601134633/http://www.lni.wa.gov/news/2002/pr020214a.htm ]


Variations in Scope of Coverage and Coverage Rates

As noted, most jurisdictions intentionally mandate employers obtain workers’ compensation coverage.  Overall workers’ covers about 85% of the employed labour force:

       US: 87.7% of Jobs;  92.4% of Total Employment (NASI, 2022 data, Table A.2)

       Canada:  83.4% of Employed Labour Force (AWCBC KSM 22, 2022)

       Australia: “Approximately 85% of filled jobs in Australia are covered by a workers’ compensation scheme” (SafeWork Australia, Explanatory Notes: National Data Set for Compensation-Based Statistics Explanatory notes NOVEMBER 2024, p. 4 )


The extent to which this mandate falls short of universal coverage varies by state/province and is an intentional choice.


Washington state mandates near universal coverage through its Department of Labor and Industries (L&I); Texas does not mandate employers carry workers’ compensation, making it the only true “opt-in” jurisdiction in North America.  That said, 75% of employers subscribe to workers’ compensation coverage, representing more than 83% of private employment in that state [Texas Department of Insurance, Employer Participation in the Texas Workers’ Compensation System, 2022 Estimates available at https://www.tdi.texas.gov/reports/wcreg/documents/nonsub2022.pdf ]. 


The Canadian coverage rate of 83.4% of Employed Labour Force oversimplifies the variation among provinces/territories.  The coverage rate varies; Ontario at 75.17% and Nova Scotia at 72.8% are at the low end of the range, while British Columbia at  95% and Prince Edward Island 98.5% approach universal levels.   


Australia has state, Australian Capital Territory, Comcare, and Seacare workers’ compensation schemes, collectively covering 85% of employment.  Again, there is wide variation among the jurisdictions.  New South Wales mandates broad coverage with an inclusive definition of worker and Schedule 1 “deemed” workers,  while Western Australia, using a narrower definition of worker.


Prevention Implications of Scope of Coverage

Workers’ compensation was intentionally designed such that the costs of work-related injuries would be “allocated to the employer” as a “cost of production”. [National Commission on State Workmen’s Compensation Laws. (1972). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. (p. 34)].  That allocation of costs “can provide a powerful economic incentive for safety” [National Commission, (p.39)].


The scope of workers’ compensation coverage has implications for other programs including Occupation Health and Safety (OH&S), particularly as coverage approaches universal levels.  In Canada, for example, the OH&S responsibilities for prevention, regulation, inspections, and education are typically included within the workers’ compensation authority where the coverage rate is well above 90% (BC, Quebec, Prince Edward Island, for example).  Where rates are below that level, the primary OH&S responsibilities are generally located in government departments (Alberta, Nova Scotia, Ontario, for example).  


OH&S responsibilities are similarly collocated in jurisdictions with high levels of workers’ compensation insurance in the US and Australia. Washington State’s Department of L&I administers the state workers’ compensation system and OH&S functions through its Division of Occupational Safety and Health (DOSH). Similarly, WorkSafe Victoria is the workplace health and safety regulator and workplace injury insurer in the state of Victoria, Australia.


In systems with near universal coverage, there is little doubt among employers, workers, or other stakeholders about the responsible authority.  Injury reporting for OH&S purposes and workers’ compensation purposes can be combined.  For example, in those jurisdictions, healthcare providers are often required to ask, “Is this injury work-related?”.  Workers’ compensation is the “first payer” in insurance terms.  This simple question leaves little doubt about reporting and payment responsibilities.    


Exclusions and Exceptions

Intentional exclusions or exemptions from workers’ compensation coverage are an intentional part of the public policy. 


A clear example of this variation in the scope of coverage exists in Canada.  British Columbia’s near universal coverage model requires employers in almost every sector to register with WorkSafeBC for workers’ compensation coverage.  Ontario is sector oriented, excluding from mandatory coverage: banks, barber shops/hairdressing, private health care clinics, travel agencies, and computer software development.


Exactly which industries or occupations are excluded varies by jurisdiction.  Small employers, for example, are often exempt from mandatory coverage in many US states although the threshold in terms of number of employees varies.  Common but not universal exclusions often include:

Agricultural workers

Fishers

Domestic workers

Volunteers

Religious orders

Small Employers (1 to 5 employees) [

Business owners, sole traders, partners, and directors/corporate officers

Family members of owners

Casual workers

Outworkers

Independent contractors

“Gig” workers


This last category is an evolving area.  Many gig-economy workers fall outside the definitions of ‘worker’ but some jurisdictions have moved to deem certain groups in this category to be workers for the purposes of workers’ compensation.


Jurisdictions intentionally excluding sectors and occupations often have “Opt-in” provisions to allow excluded or exempted categories to be obtain coverage. Many opt in for the protection from suit offered by the exclusive remedy.


Implications of exclusions and exemptions

Workers’ compensation is the “first payer” for healthcare costs associated with accepted workers’ compensation claims.  Healthcare costs associated with work-related injuries that do not become accepted workers’ compensation claims are paid by someone else.


Canada has universal healthcare but follows the same principle:  workers’ compensation is the first payer for accepted workers’ compensation claim. The Canada Health Act excludes payments by provincial workers’ compensation boards from the definition of insured health services, making employers—not taxpayer-supported provincial healthcare insurance plans—responsible for the healthcare costs associated with work-related injuries.  Where sectors are excluded from coverage under provincial workers’ compensation legislation, necessary healthcare costs are paid for by the provincial medical services plan.  


The US and Australian workers’ compensation systems are similarly first payers for accepted workers’ compensation claims. Exclusions from the workers’ compensation umbrella will externalize healthcare costs to funders in private or publicly funded healthcare insurance alternatives.  Where co-pays and deductibles are part of the non-workers’ compensation coverage, those costs are born by the worker.


Final comments

From the initial population of work-related injuries, the intentional design of workers’ compensation public policy creates the first attrition point. 


Overall, about 15% of workers in Australia, Canada, and the US are not covered by workers’ compensation.  The work-related injury, illness, disease and death cases occurring in this segment of the employed labour force will not be reflected in workers’ compensation data.  If injury risk in excluded sectors and occupation approximates that in covered sectors, one would expect roughly 15% attrition.


Each jurisdiction choses its own public policy towards workers’ compensation.  Whether more universal or more sector-specific, the intentional design of its workers’ compensation has implications for those included and excluded. 


The costs associated with work-related injuries in the excluded segment still exist.  In many cases, some or all the costs will be shifted to others including the worker.  Social insurance, group disability insurance, healthcare insurance, or private insurance may pick up some work-related injury costs, shifting the cost away from the employer and onto the funders of these other programs (often taxpayers) or the worker himself. 


The public policy of workers’ compensation is clear: the financial cost associated with work-related injury must be borne by the employer.  Exclusions and exemptions from the intentional public policy choices reflected in workers’ compensation legislation shift the cost of work-related injury to others and reduce the safety and health incentive inherent in workers’ compensation.


Externalization of the costs of work-related injuries may be a valid public policy choice.  Recognizing the implications of that choice—including providing an effective subsidy to the cost of production—should be intentional and not an unintended consequence of intentional design. 

 

In the next post, we will look at the attrition point with the greatest departures from the pathway toward workers’ compensation claim acceptance: worker, employer, and system-centric barriers (including claim suppression). 

Saturday, November 15, 2025

Why Doesn’t Every Work-Related Injury Become an Accepted Workers’ Compensation Claim? Part 1: Pathway and Attrition Points

A question raised in a Disability Management class [ Workplace Insurance and Benefits (WHDM 408) PCU-WHS] sparked a lively discussion:


“Why doesn’t every work-related injury result in an accepted workers’ compensation claim?”


Students suggested many explanations—employer resistance, worker fear of reprisal, complex procedures, limited benefits, and cultural attitudes among them.


These are all valid causes, but to answer the question properly, we first need to step back and consider how a worker’s work-related injury case becomes an accepted claim.  With that foundation, we can examine attrition—the progressive loss of cases at specific points in the pathway from work-related injury to accepted workers’ compensation claim—and begin to examine root causes.   




The Social Policy Intent and Public Policy Implementation

As a society, we want safety, health and security for workers.  When a worker is harmed because of their work, they should receive medical care, rehabilitation, and income replacement as well as assistance in returning to work. 


The social policy intent is implemented through the selection of a workers’ compensation model and enacted through public policy legislation. The US, Australia and Canada have enacted workers’ compensation schemes primarily at the state/provincial level to fulfill that intent.  The choice of a Bismarckian model has implications for the structure and funding of the workers’ compensation system in each jurisdiction as we will explore in the next post in this series.    


Implementation is focused on the broad parameters of who and what is covered.  Administration, oversight, and delivery—the “how” mechanism of public policy implantation can vary widely among jurisdictions based on the same model.  


Workers’ compensation

“Workers’ compensation is simple. Workers get harmed at work, we pay for their care, cover their lost wages, and help them return to work. What’s complicated about that?”


That comment from a newly appointed workers’ comp executive, while succinct, is overly reductive. That said, it reflects the straight-forward public expectation of workers’ compensation systems.  It glosses over the complexities from funding the system to administering cases that may have needs that last a lifetime.


Medical care, rehabilitation and income replacement don’t come cheap.  The workers’ compensation approach adopted in North America and Australia make the industries giving rise to those costs responsible for them through premiums or assessments.  By making these costs part of the cost of production, workers’ compensation prevents externalization to others (especially taxpayers), and encourages safety (fewer, less severe injuries mean lower costs). 


Many workers with work-related injuries do experience the more-or-less straightforward pathway from work-related injury to accepted workers’ compensation claim.  However, many others depart from this pathway due to factors that prevent the harm from ever becoming a recognized or accepted workers’ compensation claim.  That attrition is the focus of this series.


Why Attrition Matters

Attrition refers to those departures from the straightforward pathway to claim acceptance.


Every work-related injury, illness, or death that does not result in an accepted workers’ compensation claim has implications.  Workers may have to bear more of the financial loss, settle for lesser care, and receive more limited support.  The prevention system may lose data or get a skewed view of the risk profile of the employed labour force. Cases departing from the workers’ compensation pathway result in costs arising in or out of the course of employment being shifted—externalized—to  others, including public and private health insurers (and their premium payers or funders), social programs, community resources, taxpayers, and families.


From an economic standpoint, cost-shifting associated with the attrition of cases may represent a substantial subsidy to employer’s cost of production. 


The Pathway and Attrition Points from Work-Related Injury to Accepted Claim

Work-related injuries occur.   Globally, more than 130 countries have developed public policy to address the financial impact of this reality of harms to participants in the employed labour force.   


Injuries range in severity and consequence; where work is of causative significance (not necessarily the sole cause, but a meaningful contributor), this counts as a work-related injury.


Note:  For this analysis, “work-related injuries” includes all injuries, illnesses, diseases, and fatalities resulting in more than three days away from work [amended to remove "or medical expenses"] (or an immediate fatality). Most US states and one Canadian province impose waiting periods on workers’ compensation claims.  This provision simplifies the discussion in future parts in this series. 


Starting with the population of all work-related injuries, the following outlines the pathway to claim acceptance and the three main attrition points along the way:


1.      Public policy defines scope and coverage.
Each jurisdiction defines who and what is covered by its workers’ compensation legislation.

o   Some systems cover all workers; others exclude certain occupations or industries.

o   Some cover all injuries and diseases; others limit coverage or exclude mental injuries.

o   The choice of public policy model (e.g., Bismarck, Beveridge, Woodhouse) produces different levels of inclusivity and funding schemes.


In the US, Australia and Canada, the public policy choice is a workers’ compensation model providing an exclusive remedy that protects employers from suit (in exchange for funding a no-fault insurance system) and providing prescribed compensation, payment of medical costs, and rehabilitation services.


The choice and implementation of a public policy model creates the first attrition point: Attrition by Intentional Design, policy choices that determine which workers, industries, and injuries qualify for potential compensation.


The attrition rate will vary with the injury rate of the excluded categories.  For this analysis, we will assume a similar injury rate, similar severity and therefore attrition proportional to the employed labour force and excluded harms.


2.      Claims Initiation
A work-related injury event is (often must) be reported to the compensation authority, typically through an employer, physician, or direct worker report. The process of claim initiation is complete only when a worker or survivor formally submits a claim.


This brings us the second attrition point:  Attrition by Barriers that impede or prevent a formal claim from being established.


Many potential claims are never initiated because of barriers:

o   Worker centric barriers: fear of retaliation, lack of trust, cultural norms, lack of knowledge, availability of perceived easier or more beneficial alternatives, or belief the process is not worth the hassle.

o   Employer centric barriers: lack of knowledge, active or passive claim suppression, or discouragement.

o   System centric barriers: complex forms, reporting or processing delays, jurisdictional overlaps, or third-party involvement.


We will expand on these barriers in the third installment in this series.


3.      Claims are processed and adjudicated.
Once a valid claim is received, it enters the formal decision process. This stage may be called adjudication, claim review, or adjustment carried out by a review officer, entitlement officer, claims manager, adjuster, or review officer.  

Evidence is gathered, causation assessed, and standards (onus of proof, standard of proof) applied according to established policies and directives. Adjudication may involve investigation and deliberation, ending with a decision to accept (allow) or deny (disallow).


Here, policy interpretation, practice directives, and evidentiary standards all affect the likelihood of acceptance. This constitutes the third attrition point:  Attrition by Policy, Practice, and Process. This captures the deliberate decisions rendered regarding a specific claim. Outcomes other than an accepted claim from this process or adjudication stage in the pathway typically include claims that are denied (disallowed, rejected) as well as those that are withdrawn or deemed abandoned. 


4.      The Population of Accepted Claims
The initial pool of work-related injuries has experienced attrition, leaving only accepted claims satisfying all of the following:

  • The worker and harm falls within the system’s scope of coverage.
  • The harm is reported and a claim is initiated.
  • The claim meets all policy and evidentiary requirements (including standards and onus of proof), process requirements and practice directives.
  • The injury, illness, or death is determined to be work-related.
  • An “allow” decision rendered.


Once accepted, further adjudication determines the type and amount of compensation, duration of benefits, and rehabilitation or return-to-work support. While most accepted claims proceed smoothly, the pathway to acceptance filters out many potential cases long before this stage.


Summary

Work-related harms to workers occur; many are within the scope the scope of the workers’ compensation model adopted in the jurisdiction.  Many work-related injuries are reported to the workers’ compensation authority, subjected to an adjudication process, and result in accepted workers’ compensation claims. 


We identified three attrition points where cases of work-related injury depart from this pathway:

  1. Attrition by Intentional Design – limitations built into policy and legislation (who and what is covered).
  2. Attrition by Reporting Barriers – obstacles to initiating claims, including worker, employer, and system factors.
  3. Attrition by Policy, Practice, and Process – decisions made during adjudication that exclude some claims.


In subsequent parts of this series, we will quantify the attrition at each of these points, examining the factors that contribute to the attrition, and consider what might be done to reduce unnecessary attrition to improve fairness, prevention, and accountability in workers’ compensation systems.


Monday, September 1, 2025

Measuring RTW Outcomes in Workers’ Compensation: Part 3 – RTW Trajectories

 

In earlier posts, we looked at return-to-work (RTW) measures at national or multi-jurisdictional levels as well as specific RTW measures published by individual jurisdictions.


For any cohort of accepted workers’ compensation claims, the current RTW status will vary with time.  Snapshots of RTW status at increasing time from date of injury or disablement depict RTW trajectories useful in evaluating system performance and gauging the impact of legislative, policy, and practice changes over time.


This part focuses on RTW trajectories, the progression over time toward eventual RTW status. While most workers do return to work, the process may not be a simple progression from total temporary wage-loss benefits to fully restored health and earnings. RTW  trials, partial RTW stretches, repeated claim reopening for surgeries or further treatment and other combinations may extend the timeframe to eventual return to work (or permanent disability without RTW). 



AWCBC:  National Trajectory


In Part 1, I presented AWCBC data for Key Statistical Measure (KSM)25.5 – Percentage of claims off wage loss benefits (temporary disability payments) at 180 days.  AWCBC has additional measures for 30, 60, 90, 120, and 360 days. 


Data are reported by each jurisdiction for each year.  It is important to note each KSM has its own definition, and each is an independent snapshot with its own numerator and denominator.  While there is overlap, the collected results for any given year contain claims with injuries that may traverse several years.  In Part 1, I posted the full definition for KSM 25.5.  Readers should refer to AWCBC definitions for each measure for a more complete explanation [see AWCBC, KSM Definitions at https://awcbc.org/data-and-statistics/key-statistical-measures/ksm-definitions ].


Additional measures reported under AWCBC’s “Return To Work” heading note the percentage of claims still on wage-loss benefits after 2 years (KSM 24.1) and 6 years (KSM 24.2).  Each of these measures reflects data reported to AWCBC by its member jurisdictions (the workers’ compensation boards of Canadian provinces and territories).  As noted in Part 1, these measures are not based on RTW outcomes, but AWCBC describes the intent of the measure this way:

“To be a proxy of return to work. To measure how soon injured workers leave the wage-loss compensation system permanently.”


National data for Canada reported for 2022 shows:

  • 68.3% off wage-loss benefits at 30 days. 
  • 81% off wage-loss benefits at 90 days
  • 88.21% off wage-loss benefits by 180 days (as discussed in Part 1)
  • 93.46% were off wage-loss benefits at 360 days.   


AWCBC measures also note 4% of claims are still on active wage-loss benefits at after 2 years (KSM 24.1-2022) and 2.33% after 6 years (KSM 24.2-2022.  This demonstrates the “long tail” of claims costs associated with workers’ compensation injuries. 


AWCBC: Jurisdictional Trajectories    


In Canada, the US and Australia, workers’ compensation is primarily the concern of individual states/provinces/territories.  The context of each jurisdiction accounts for differences in the observed trajectories.


Looking more closely at a sampling of jurisdictions, we can see significant difference in jurisdictional coverage, compensation rates, industrial size and mix, and policy that may affect these KSMs.


Ontario is Canada’s largest province.  It has the largest concentration of very large enterprises particularly in manufacturing, but has one of the lowest level of workforce coverage by WSIB at about 72%. Compensation rates for wage loss benefits were 85% of net earnings (essentially spendable earnings).  There are no waiting periods in Ontario. 


BC is Canada’s third largest province with primary industries a dominant factor in the economy.  WorkSafeBC, the sole provider of workers’ compensation coverage, covers 95% of the employed labour force.  The compensation rate is 90% of net earnings with no waiting period. 


Nova Scotia is one of the Canada’s smallest provinces. Employers tend to be smaller than in Ontario and BC.  About 75% of the labour force is covered by the Workers’ Compensation Board of Nova Scotia.  The Temporary Earnings Replacement Benefit (TERB) rate is 75% of net earnings loss for up to 26 weeks then TERB increases to 85% of net earnings loss.  


Nova Scotia is the only remaining Canadian jurisdiction with a waiting period. Equal to two-fifths (2/5s or 40%) of a normal work week’s wages, this is essentially a worker deductible.  If the duration of the claim extends beyond five weeks (a retroactive period), the waiting period deducted for the first week is paid to the worker.


As you examine the “off wage-loss benefits” data in the table below, keep these features of each province in mind.

 

[Data from AWCBC custom report for 2022]

Ontario

British Columbia

Nova Scotia

24.1-Claims on Wage-Loss Benefits after 2 years (%)

3.15

2.64

9.80

24.2-Claims on Wage-Loss Benefits after 6 years (%)

2.04

1.12

5.59

 

 

 

 

25.1-Percentage of Wage-Loss Claims off Wage-Loss Benefits at 30 days (%)

76.52

58.00

46.40

25.2-Percentage of Wage-Loss Claims off Compensation at 60 days (%)

83.40

68.00

60.92

25.3-Percentage of Wage-Loss Claims off Wage-Loss Benefits at 90 days (%)

87.24

75.00

69.11

25.4-Percentage of Wage-Loss Claims off Wage-Loss Benefits at 120 days (%)

89.59

80.00

74.70

25.5-Percentage of Wage-Loss Claims off Wage-Loss Benefits at 180 days (%)

92.11

85.00

80.74

25.6-Percentage of Wage-Loss Claims off Wage-Loss Benefits at 360 days (%)

95.33

92.00

88.17



Texas:  Detailed RTW Findings


In Part 2, I highlighted the Texas Department of Insurance, Division of Workers’ Compensation research study, 2023 Return to Work. 


As noted, this study relies on extensive records and differentiates between initial and sustained RTW outcomes.  Using tens of thousands of cases, the study has statistical significance in finer categories than the AWCBC data. 


Recall the following definitions:

  • Initial RTW is the percentage of injured employees who returned to work for the first time after their injury
  • Sustained RTW is the percentage of injured employees who returned to work and stay ed at work for three consecutive quarters (nine months) after their injury.


In Part 2, the Texas initial and sustained RTW rates at six months were examined.  The following tables highlight RTW rates at various milestones post injury.  These are partial extracts from the study showing 2014-2017 injury years. As noted, this is a retrospective study so time must have passed to measure outcomes at various milestones.  Also, the definition for sustained RTW requires additional passage of time from the last injury date in the cohort to determine sustainability over three calendar quarters. 

Table 1.1 Initial RTW % [extract]

2014

2015

2016

2017

6 months

79

79

80

83

1 year

88

88

89

91

1.5 years

91

92

92

94

2 years

93

93

95

95

3 years

95

96

96

96

Table 2.1 Sustained RTW % [extract]

2014

2015

2016

2017

6 months

63

63

65

73

1 year

70

70

71

77

1.5 years

73

72

73

79

2 years

74

73

78

79

3 years

75

77

78

79


Note the relative stability of the results over time.  Note also the 10-15 percent fall-off between the initial and sustained outcomes. Again, this is based on earnings continuing for three calendar quarters after the initial RTW, so a portion of the fall off may be unrelated to the work injury.


The study contains additional detail on the RTW trajectories including initial and sustained RTW rates by industry.  Texas is one of the few jurisdictions where workers’ compensation insurance coverage is not mandatory.  That said, three-quarters of private sector employers participate covering about 83% of the labour force.  Mining, construction and utilities have the highest rates of coverage; about a third of small employer (1-4 employees) do not participate [2022 estimates].


The initial and sustained RTW outcomes vary by sector as you might expect.  The size of the dataset allows for sectoral estimates as follows:

Table 1.3 and 2.3 [extract for 2020]

Initial RTW%

Sustained RTW%

Agriculture

81

67

Arts/Accommodation

78

63

Education/Health

88

74

Manufacturing

83

67

Mining/Utilities/Construction

76

60

Other Services

80

67

Professional Group

79

63

Public Administration

90

77

Wholesale/Retail/Transportation

84

68


Note the significant difference between initial and sustained RTW outcomes.  The table also provides insight into how the industrial “mix” of a jurisdiction can influence summary statistics concerning RTW.  All other things being equal, an economy more heavily weighted toward mining/utilities/construction will have lower RTW outcomes than one dominated by public administration/education/health.


ReturnToWork South Australia: Trajectories


Outcomes for RTWSA were touched on in Part 2.  Their Statistics 2024 document contains RTW outcomes for specific milestones.  Recall the three RTW status outcomes noted: “Not at work”, “Partially at work”, and “Fully at work”. The trajectory of claims is marked by the following percentages at specific milestones:

RTWSA FY2024 – Worker Status by Week Milestone

Milestone (Weeks)

At Work

Partially at Work

Not at Work

4 weeks

70.20%

4.50%

25.30%

13 weeks

81.70%

4.40%

13.90%

26 weeks

90.70%

3.70%

5.60%

52 weeks

94.50%

1.90%

3.60%

78 weeks

96.50%

1.00%

2.50%


 Note the combination of “At work” and “Partially at work”.  These data may suggest positive impacts of stay-at-work programs. 


Note also the residual cases not back at work beyond 52 to 78 weeks or longer. It is important to remember the injured workers and their families represented by this number and to not assume a return to work is imminent.  As noted in the AWCBC and Texas data, RTW outcomes may not be achieved in 26 weeks, a year or even three years… or ever.  At some point, however, the case will close.  Although “closure” is not an outcome, understanding the trajectories of these claims is important.


In personal injury and disability management, much of the attention is paid to headline, recent claims data.  In reality, much of the work of workers’ compensation entities is focused on longer duration claims. 


The RTWSA report demonstrates this by reporting active accepted claims by claim duration.  This snapshot shows the significant proportion of claims


Active Accepted Claims – FY 2024 Breakdown

Claim Duration

Percentage (FY 2024)

0 to 1 Years

40.1%

1 to 2 Years

15.9%

2 to 3 Years

8.6%

3 to 4 Years

5.9%

4 to 5 Years

4.5%

5 to 6 Years

3.7%

6 to 7 Years

2.5%

7 to 8 Years

1.8%

8 to 9 Years

1.8%

9 to 10 Years

1.2%

> 10 Years

14.1%

Grand Total

100 %


WorkSafe Victoria: Physical vs. Mental Injury Trajectories


The mix of injury categories, like the mix of injuries, can have a significant impact on RTW outcome measures.  Few jurisdictions report RTW outcome results by injury category.


As noted in Part 2, WorkSafe Victoria does report and target its RTW measures for two injury categories.  I’ve extracted the headline key performance indicators for both physical and mental injuries for financial year 2022/2023 from their 2023-2024 Corporate Plan:


WorkSafe Victoria Return to Work Rates F/Y 2022/23

Physical Injuries

Mental Injuries

16 wks

67.40%

32.90%

26 wks

73.60%

41.60%

52 wks

78.80%

49.90%

104 wks

81.00%

58.70%


Note the significant difference in the trajectories of these two injury categories.  This illustrates one of the complexities with this type of injury.  The disability management approach applied to physical injuries requires adjustments to meet the needs of this population. The performance expectations metrics applied by workers’ compensation authorities to claims administration agents must be responsive to the differences.


As with industry mix, the mix of injury categories can influence RTW outcomes reported at the jurisdictional level. Since both can change over time, public reporting and access to underlying data are essential to oversight and transparency. 


Summary comments on RTW Trajectories and Final Thoughts


The users of RTW data are many.  Politicians and policy makers need these data to monitor performance and decide if and how programs ought to change. 


Stakeholders need RTW data for similar reasons and to help them evaluate how current the current system is meeting their needs. Administrators need RTW data to assign resources, assess performance, and monitor success against intended targets.


For actuaries and planners, RTW trajectory information can help model claim costs and determine sufficiency of assets to cover the claim, administration, and medical costs over the life of the claims entering the system each year, 


In Part 1, standardized methodologies across jurisdictions allowed for interjurisdictional comparison. Comparative data (with context for each comparator) allows reported performance data to be fairly interpreted. 


Part 2 demonstrated the insights application of consistent measures of RTW over time for individual jurisdictions. Examining if and how RTW outcomes change over time provides a starting point for evaluating scheme effectiveness on a primary objective of workers’ compensation systems.


RTW trajectories, as shown in Part 3, illustrates how quickly the full (and in some cases partial) RTW outcome results level off after the initial 30, 60 or 90 days in the AWCBC data examples.  The Texas and ReturnToWork SA results show minimal (if any) gains in either initial or sustained RTW outcomes after 1-1.5yrs post initial disablement.  The WorkSafe Victoria data demonstrate the stark difference in RTW outcomes between physical and mental injury cases.


Knowing the current pattern and distribution of RTW outcomes over months or years is essential to system oversight, policy design, and program evaluation. The RTWSA underscores the service and support needs of those cases with less than a full or sustained RTW or ongoing disability.


Few workers’ compensation jurisdictions post RTW outcomes.  Fewer still report on the durability or RTW outcomes with sufficient detail to allow for critical review, analysis and comparison. Measuring RTW outcomes –full, partial, successful or not—is fundamental.  Transparency around RTW outcomes is essential.


If RTW outcomes are truly a priority for workers’ compensation, then reporting on this metric should be routine, data-rich, and transparent at all levels—from program and service providers, to disability management agents and claims administrators to full systems at the state/provincial and national level.

“Measurement is the first step that leads to control and eventually to improvement.

If you can’t measure something, you can’t understand it.

If you can’t understand it, you can’t control it.

If you can’t control it, you can’t improve it.”

― H. James Harrington [attributed]


Thanks to those who prepare, research,  and report their data and make it available to others.   And special thanks to those who answered questions regarding their data. 


[This post was prepared as a resource for DMCCT- Evaluating DM Programs & Assessing RTW Processes, Pacific Coast University for Workplace Health Sciences.]